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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.