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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.